Table of contents
- 1. Intro to Stats and Collecting Data55m
- 2. Describing Data with Tables and Graphs1h 55m
- 3. Describing Data Numerically1h 45m
- 4. Probability2h 16m
- 5. Binomial Distribution & Discrete Random Variables2h 33m
- 6. Normal Distribution and Continuous Random Variables1h 38m
- 7. Sampling Distributions & Confidence Intervals: Mean1h 3m
- 8. Sampling Distributions & Confidence Intervals: Proportion1h 12m
- 9. Hypothesis Testing for One Sample1h 1m
- 10. Hypothesis Testing for Two Samples2h 8m
- 11. Correlation48m
- 12. Regression1h 4m
- 13. Chi-Square Tests & Goodness of Fit1h 20m
- 14. ANOVA1h 0m
4. Probability
Fundamental Counting Principle
Problem 3.T.2c
Textbook Question
A person's building access code is their first and last initials and four digits.
You know a person's first name only, and you know that the last digit is odd. What is the probability of guessing this person's code on the first try?

1
Step 1: Understand the structure of the access code. The code consists of two initials (first and last initials) and four digits. The last digit is specified to be odd.
Step 2: Determine the number of possible combinations for the initials. Each initial can be one of 26 letters (assuming the English alphabet), so there are 26 × 26 = 676 possible combinations for the initials.
Step 3: Analyze the four-digit portion of the code. Since the last digit is odd, it can only be one of the odd digits: {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}, which gives 5 choices for the last digit. The other three digits can each be any digit from 0 to 9, providing 10 choices per digit.
Step 4: Calculate the total number of possible codes. Multiply the number of combinations for the initials (676) by the number of combinations for the digits. For the digits, calculate 10 × 10 × 10 × 5 (three unrestricted digits and one odd digit).
Step 5: Compute the probability of guessing the code correctly on the first try. Since there is only one correct code, the probability is 1 divided by the total number of possible codes calculated in Step 4.

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Key Concepts
Here are the essential concepts you must grasp in order to answer the question correctly.
Probability
Probability is a measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur, expressed as a number between 0 and 1. In this context, it helps determine the chance of correctly guessing a specific building access code based on the known parameters. The formula for probability is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes.
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Combinatorics
Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics dealing with combinations and arrangements of objects. In this scenario, it is essential for calculating the total number of possible access codes based on the initials and the four-digit number. Understanding how to count combinations will help in determining the total outcomes when guessing the code.
Digits and Odd Numbers
In this problem, the last digit of the access code must be an odd number, which limits the choices for that digit. The odd digits are 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9, providing five options. Recognizing the constraints on the digits is crucial for accurately calculating the total number of possible codes and, consequently, the probability of guessing correctly.
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